【封面故事】2017台股這樣賺

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index

   
  瞄準二度蜜月股回檔低接穩賺4成  
  信驊把冷門變熱門 爭霸IC設計股王
  英鎊分批低接 英股伺機血拼
 

【2017台股趨勢論壇】新風向×新思維×新選擇

   
 

全球經濟復甦疲弱,在各國央行持續量化寬鬆下,營造出的低利環境與氾濫資金所推高的股市,究竟會不會就此終結?未來要續抱台股嗎?風險有多高?這些都是所有投資人共同的疑惑。今年全球黑天鵝漫舞,在股市大起大落的劇烈波動行情中,仍然有不少贏家;聽聽他們的經驗,肯定對你的投資會有莫大助益。

自營商常勝軍前大展證總經理陳政元,明星基金經理人陳奕豪,股市贏家大仁哥與雷哥,在詭譎多變的股市中,仍創造賺贏大盤數倍的投資績效。現在他們正費盡心思擬訂2017年賺錢計畫,這些贏家壓箱寶的私房筆記,也會是多數投資人在混沌不明的局勢中,看清方向的一盞明燈…

   
  瞄準二度蜜月股回檔低接穩賺4成

天地萬物都有其一定的循環,股價的變化也不例外,陳政元運用股票位階原理,在低位階時投資布局,且嚴守停損紀律,這2年來不必殺進殺出,平均獲利也達4成以上。

今年50歲的大展證券前總經理陳政元已經展開快樂的半退休生活,自從2015年3月離職之後,陸續到英國、新加坡、中國等國家旅遊,1年內幾乎坐飛機繞了地球兩圈,不出國的時候,每星期打兩次高爾夫球,也讓他臉上散發陽光般的黝黑亮澤,比起之前天天得待在8個螢幕的操盤室,時時只有螢幕發出藍光的照射,對比之下,自然更顯神清氣爽。

陳政元在大展證券時代,所帶領的自營部門操盤績效一直是國內自營商的常勝軍,在他離職前1年,大展自營部門當年獲利績效超過7成,是當年國內自營商績效冠軍,離開職場之後,依然延續過去操盤常勝軍的氣勢;當了專業投資人,不用天天緊盯盤勢,短線殺進殺出,這兩年獲利年平均報酬也達到四成,成為快樂的股市贏家。

嚴守投資紀律
下跌10至15%一定出場

陳政元常被大學邀請去演講股海淘金術,分享成功投資心法,他開門見山跟學生說,股市沒有專家,只有贏家與輸家,要想成為贏家,就得嚴控風險,嚴守紀律,在股市低位階的時候買進,在股票高位階的時候賣出,才會成為真正贏家。

由於大展證券過去是台北重要的內資指標券商,陳政元看過無數主力與中實戶的起落。他體認出,想要在股海中淘金,別追高是最好的保命法,萬一不小心追高時,虧損10至15%一定要執行停損…詳全文

 
   
 
信驊把冷門變熱門 爭霸IC設計股王
 

10月6日,台灣唯一的雲端伺服器IC設計公司信驊,股價收盤490.5元,一舉超越矽力─KY,成為IC設計股王。儘管隨後信驊股價仍有起落,與矽力─KY的股王爭奪戰尚未落幕;但信驊的崛起,不僅是提前十年掌握雲端產業大趨勢,更彰顯科技業「勇於挑戰、敢於不同」的創新價值。

被迫失業 揪老同事創業

信驊成立於2004年,靠著自力投入研發,加上台灣至今牢牢掌握全球8成伺服器主機板的設計與製造,短短幾年內,就與日商瑞薩(Renasas)及美商Emulex,並列為全球前三大廠。

今年五月,信驊宣布以3,000萬美元(約9.6億元台幣)收購博通旗下的Emulex,也讓信驊的霸主地位更鞏固。

此外,信驊從成立後的第8個季度開始,每季都賺錢,去年每股稅後純益(EPS)10.79元,今年上半年EPS 5.71元;雖然獲利只排在國內IC設計第5名,但股本只有3.18億元,加上毛利率都在54至55%左右,營收又持續高成長,讓股價與本益比都衝上最高點。

雲端伺服器IC到底是什麼?事實上,雲端產業最重要有伺服器(Server)、交換機(Switch)、儲存(Storage)三大主要設備,一般公司將資訊中心的設備放在高密度的機房,由於高熱又高噪音,人並不適合進去,這時就需要遠端管理;而信驊發展出負責執行遠端管理協定(IPMI)的系統整合晶片(SOC),就可從遠端進行伺服器管理,也稱為雲端伺服器。

回想創業歷程,信驊董事長林鴻明坦承,創業原不是他的人生規畫,他在矽統服務10多年,其後獨立出來負責圖誠科技,但因聯電入主矽統後,強勢進行人事改組,他與團隊被迫離開。
突如其來的「失業」,讓林鴻明體會到專業經理人的悲哀,因此想擁有自己的事業平台,他號召老同事,包括行銷業務副總陳清宏、產品開發副總黃鴻儒等一起創辦信驊…詳全文

   
     
   
 

英鎊分批低接 英股伺機血拼

 

英國梅伊政府採取硬脫歐,英鎊應聲貶破31年低價,讓人憂心英國邁向經濟黑暗期;多數分析師仍看空後勢,英鎊底部尚未浮現,但是投資人已經看見機會。

最近身邊聽到去英國留學或旅遊的人變多了,因為英鎊匯率貶到1985年來新低,對多數想要去英國旅行或留學的人來說,「機會難得啊」!

英鎊大幅貶值的起因是英國公投決定脫離歐盟,跌勢加速則是因為新任首相梅伊在10月2日保守黨年度大會宣布脫歐政策,表明將採取「硬脫歐」(hard Brexit),恐切斷與歐洲單一市場的經貿通路,讓人憂心英國經濟命脈所繫的金融業將無以為繼。

憂心!進口用品開始調漲

英鎊貶值之際,正逢歐陸的恐攻陰影和難民危機揮之不去,外國遊客卻步,於是順勢轉往英國。根據瑞銀(UBS)分析退稅服務的業者環球藍聯(Global Blue)的資料,外國遊客8月在英國可以退稅的購物支出(大多為高價精品)比1年前激增36%;反觀法國8月的金額年減20%,義大利也少掉11%。

Louis Vuitton手提包通常不是到英國旅遊的必買商品,但是英鎊大貶之後,這款名牌包的英國售價卻成為全球最便宜。《華爾街日報》委託勤業眾信所做的定價分析顯示,LV的Speedy 30白色棋盤格波士頓包,在倫敦的售價是645英鎊(約25,000元台幣);巴黎賣760歐元(約27,000元台幣),紐約售價則是970美元(約31,000元台幣)。

英鎊之後進一步貶值,LV包當然又更划算。但要趕在母公司LVMH調漲售價前下手才行。例如,蘋果早在9月初便調漲iPhone和iPad部分產品在英國的售價,以彌平過大的價差…詳全文

 

 
     

 

 

 
 

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