【理財周刊844期封面故事】乾坤大挪移

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2016/10/27  |  第625期  |  訂閱/退訂  |  看歷史報份
 

 封面故事 跟外資打太極 借力使力賺大錢 台灣50與中型100 一路拚到底
 特別企劃 大健康時代來臨 闕鴻達矢志推廣藻類保健食品
 活動快遞 【億級大師】蕭明道技術分析公益班2(封刀最終場)

 

跟外資打太極 借力使力賺大錢 台灣50與中型100 一路拚到底
文.馮泉富

台股成交量集中在外資最愛的150檔成分股,要嘛借力使力跟著法人賺,要嘛耐心布局低基期、低股淨比、低本益比的三低股操作,才不會追漲殺跌,白忙一場。

台股在截稿前續創波段新高,眼看加權指數即將挑戰9500點,但是由各方資訊與相關媒體觀察,市場一般投資人並未出現喜氣洋洋皆大歡喜的氛圍。今年行情的漲升結構是很特別的,完全由外資主導與掌控,今年以來累計(統計至十月二十四日)外資買超金額已達四二五八億新台幣。

有量就有價 聚焦150檔

由於外資進出部位大,標的的篩選除了產業基本面以外,首重流動性與總市值,因為這攸關對龐大資金的胃納量。因此,外資買超的標的集中在台灣50與中型100成份股,形成了上周所提的一個市場兩個世界。

在加權指數屢創新高的當下,櫃買指數還在月均線以下震盪整理,對一般投資人而言,除非跟著外資買超標的布局,其他的大部份人則面臨史上最無感的多頭行情。

去年下半年至今,台股的內在結構已有明顯的改變,外資持有台股比率已創40%的新高,台積電市值逼近5兆元新台幣,但是79.8%持股在外資手上,台積電上漲,散戶却賺不到。

日前台股周成交量也創四年來最低,周K線震幅僅0.84%創新低,九月台股的月周轉率剩4.8%,首度跌破5%,這是剔除二月過年的季節因素外的單月歷史新低。

不少績優股 也乏人問津

流動性大降是資本市場非常大的警訊。周轉率愈高代表流動性高、變現能力佳,企業掛牌募資功能彰顯,容易吸引優良企業來台掛牌,進入良性循環。反之,流動性差,企業籌資也難,資本市場功能式微,可能連本土企業都出走,選擇異地掛牌。

舉一些數據為例,看目前市場有多冷清。十月二十四日集中市場交易總額為578.6億,若扣掉外資參與率高的台灣50(207.4億)及中型100(114.4億)成份股,僅剩256.8億,若再扣除種類繁多的各項ETF(71.1億),僅剩187.7億。

這樣的窒息量再分配給其他的中小型股,難怪成交量低於一百張的個股高達680檔,其中低於五十張交易量的個股為461檔。更驚人的是低於十張的竟高達158檔,其中還不乏績優生(例如全家、安心、誠品、商店街、杏昌、104、德麥等等),集中市場中小型股與櫃買市場一樣冷清,這樣的成交量如何吸引優秀企業來台掛牌?

聚焦第四季暢旺族群

在低量能的環境,流動性風險增加,景氣基本面的條件更形重要。事實上台灣景氣已明顯脫離谷底,進入復甦軌道。根據經濟部公布的九月外銷訂單,金額為429.6億美元,創下歷年同月次高,年增率3.9%,是年增率連十六黑後拉出的連兩紅。

綜觀九月七大接單類別,金額最大的資訊通信與電子產品表現非常亮眼,分別達146.3億與116億美元,皆創下歷年單月新高,投資人可屏除旺季不旺的疑慮。

當然,這一回又是「一顆蘋果」救了台灣,iPhone 7的上市與Macbook的大改款,加上中低價手機需求增溫,帶動半導體產業供應鏈與組裝代工訂單增加。

高階製程手機晶片、晶圓代工、DRAM及被動元件模組等產業供應鏈都明顯增加。資通信的相關組裝代工及產業供應訂單也成長。連面板、DRAM產業都出現少有的連續調漲價格局面。

最重要的是,經濟部預估十月接單金額可持續成長,約四三五∼四四五億美元,年增預估約4.2%到4.6%,且有機會年底前最後三個月都是正成長,再對照九月北美半導體設備訂單出貨比(B/B值)來到1.05,不僅是七月以來的新高,並且連續十個月站上代表景氣擴張的「一」以上。

不只半導體產業將呈現淡季不淡,九月份的整體上市櫃第四季的營收應該十分值得投資人期待。

鴻海看俏 面板報價持續上揚

現階段由於量能萎縮,投資人在交易策略上也需搭配市場兩極化的趨勢。一是完全追蹤外資近期持續買超的標的,且第四季正處營運旺季的公司。

例如鴻海,第四季原本就是營運旺季,今年以來股價漲幅不大,股價基期低、本益比低、流動性佳,加上市場顧慮的日本夏普虧損金額快速改善,是投資人可逢低布局的標的。

另外一個策略就是尋找股價基期低,低股價淨值比,或低本益比、產品漲價題材、投信法人買超等等,符合越多項條件越好,容易吸引市場資金關注。由於市場成交低量化,資金會更形集中,短線強弱更為分明。

例如,面板產業過去是兩天打漁五天曬網,所以才會形成股價低基期、低股價淨值比的條件,適逢面板供需出現變化,連續調漲報價,季財報由虧轉盈等題材,重點是投信法人認同,加入買超行列,的確有短線操作空間。

根據IHS公佈十月份面板報價,TV面板32吋報價雖已經過大幅上漲使基期墊高,但仍持續漲價,漲幅仍有2.7%。另外受惠TV尺寸提升,及三星七代線十一月關廠在即,使40吋報價漲13%, 43吋漲10.4%,49吋漲8.8%,55吋漲3.1%,皆優於市場預期,顯示現階段TV面板仍呈現產能吃緊狀況。

目前各面板廠將產能移往獲利較佳的50吋以上面板慣性不變,使IT面板產能也出現短缺,報價持續上漲,依尺寸不同,監視器面板約上漲1∼3.4%,NB面板上漲3∼4%。

【詳細內容請參閱最新一期《理財周刊》844期。尊重智慧財產權,如需轉載請註明出處來源;歡迎訂閱理財周刊電子雜誌。用對好工具,賺錢很容易《專業財經DVD函授教學

 

大健康時代來臨 闕鴻達矢志推廣藻類保健食品
文.洪寶山

台語有一句俗諺說「戲棚下站久了就是你的」,鼓勵人只要努力堅持,總有一天會有自己的舞台。本期「理財我最大」邀訪到的來賓就是堅守崗位四十五年,如今把生意做到全球五十三個國家,依然努力向前的闕鴻達。

闕鴻達是遠東生技的創辦人兼董事長,同時是遠東生技研究所的所長,剛踏入職場時,闕鴻達走的並不是生技領域,而是在知名企業德州儀器工作。

雖然甫入職場就得到令人稱羨的好工作,不過這個好運氣沒有持續太久,闕鴻達在全球不景氣的裁員風暴下中箭落馬。回頭看看人生,其實危機就是轉機,失業後的闕鴻達跟隨父親的腳步走進了綠藻的世界,這一走就是四十五年。

向日本人學技術 開創微藻事業

早在二次大戰過後為了解決糧食不足的問題,德國就開始著手微細藻類的研究,以彌補民眾飲食中所欠缺的蛋白質。而後日本也跟進投入研究,並發現綠藻的許多特殊功效,引發了日本民眾對綠藻產品一窩蜂的需求,台灣業者看見日本的需求後,陸續投入綠藻生產以供應日本所需,闕鴻達也開始研究國際論文、跟日本人學技術,開創他的綠藻事業。

投入綠藻產業這四十五年間世界的變化非常快,闕鴻達回想他當初開始做綠藻時,電腦還是286的時代,短短不過五年電腦已經升級到486,做電腦生意的人紛紛抱怨電腦升級的速度太快,以至於倉庫堆滿了庫存品,但闕鴻達的綠藻錠一顆不過0.5公克,卻飽含了人體必需的營養,同時隨著大健康時代的來臨,大家愈來愈重視身體健康與保養,讓闕鴻達的微藻事業愈做愈大,也愈做愈開心。

不過草創事業,闕鴻達也經歷過一段辛苦的歷程,一開始是一個人拿著皮箱滿世界參展,後來因為許多人一窩蜂的投入綠藻市場,激烈的市場競爭使得產品的品質與價格參差不齊,甚至曾經因為客戶看好藻類產品的利潤自行設廠生產,讓闕鴻達的公司遭受很大的打擊,落到只能吃泡麵過年的地步。

還好不論有多少困難,闕鴻達終究還是挺過來了,他堅持投入研發,做出差異,終於在優勝劣敗的市場競爭中做出佳績。

一滴血驗健康 研發成果領先全球

隨著更多的投入與研究,許多微藻類的研究成果一一出現,從最早能夠提供全營養以及具有排毒功效的綠藻,到後來能夠抗病毒的藍藻,再到具有抗氧化功能的紅藻,最近又有能夠抗癌的褐藻。

闕鴻達說,世界不斷的在進步,每一個世代都會有新的發現,因此要不斷的研發才能往上提升,才能一代比一代更精進。現在,在藻類研究的領域中,台灣不再是跟隨著別人的腳步,而是走在世界的前面。

闕鴻達還有一項頗值得驕傲的研發成果,那就是從藻類中抽取出每一毫克價值十美元的螢光蛋白質。螢光蛋白質在生物科技上的應用,是可以只透過一滴血就能驗出一個人身體的健康狀況。

這項研究是美國的成果,但闕鴻達在技術上後來居上,現在還能供應原料給全世界。此外,他的公司目前還有一個藻類抗流感病毒的研究已經做到臨床二期,以及藻精蛋白對抗腸病毒研究也在臨床前的階段,這些研究成果都是走在世界的前端。

在保健食品充斥市場的現在,民眾想要選到對的產品來保健養生很不容易,如果什麼都買,什麼都吃,不但無法達到保健的效果,還有可能造成身體的負擔。

地球初始生命體 海洋食物鏈起源

闕鴻達說,在保健食品中要找到天然、濃縮,又有效果的產品的確很難,而藻類就是屬於這種產品。藻類是最早出現在地球中的生命體,在海中吸收了太陽的能量,並經由光合作用為地球製造氧氣,開創了地球的生機,現在地球中有20%的氧氣還是由微藻創造出來的。同時藻類也是海洋中食物鏈的起源,大魚吃小魚,小魚吃蝦米,蝦米吃微藻,所以微藻支撐起整個海洋中的食物鏈。

一顆0.5公克的微藻中有四千萬個小細胞,一顆跟紅血球一樣大的小細胞在水裡面就是一個單獨的生命體,具有抗氧化能力,而且生命力很強,太陽再大、環境再惡劣都不怕,才可以存活三十五億年至今。

人類食用植物,有些只吃葉,有些只吃莖,無法吃到植物完整的營養素,但一顆小小的微藻根莖葉全部在裡面,吃了微藻等於吃了它全部的營養,闕鴻達說,微藻中所含的營養素說都說不完。

難道光是藻類就能夠提供人類所需的營養素嗎?日本曾經做過一個研究,有一位日本博士帶著綠藻片跟礦泉水到沙漠住了三個月,三個月後不但身體狀況依然健康,同時胃口變小,身材也瘦了,就連美國太空總署也讓太空人把綠藻帶上太空。

闕鴻達表示,奶粉的蛋白質含量不到30%,但乾燥濃縮的綠藻粉末有將近60%的蛋白質含量,可以提供人體所需,而且由於是純天然,即使多吃了也只是不吸收而已,對身體並沒有壞處。

藻片裡面不是只有蛋白質,還有維他命、胺基酸及植化素等多種營養成分,是任何營養品及維他命無法比較的。現代人常飲食過量,營養又不均衡,許多五十歲左右的人都面臨到高血壓、高血脂及糖尿病的困擾,為了控制血糖、血壓及血脂,每天要吞下一大堆各式各樣的西藥,造成身體的負擔。

不過有實驗發現只要一天吃三十片微藻片,就可以達到吃一堆藥物的效果,而且是天然無壞處的,當然這個研究還有更多的實驗需要進行,但藻類的其他好處已經經由許多研究報告獲得了證實。

藻類的最大好處就是全食營養,以及抗病毒、排毒、抗氧化的功效,闕鴻達建議大家可以依照「早藍晚綠紅太陽」的口訣來服用藻類食品,早上出門前服用藍藻取其提神及抗病毒的功效,中午服用紅藻取其抗氧化的效果,晚上則服用綠藻取其安神及排毒的功能,讓忙碌了一天的身體可以好好休息。

不過在選購藻類產品時,切記不要隨便購買便宜或不知名廠商生產的產品,如果因為貪小便宜而吃壞了身體,那就得不償失了。

乾淨水培養 重金屬含量符合標準

或許有人會問,現在環境污染那麼嚴重,藻類生長在海中難道沒有受到海洋中重金屬的污染嗎?吃了對人體真的不會造成傷害嗎?關於這個問題,闕鴻達表示,不論是淡水性的綠藻還是鹹水性的藍藻,要製作成健康食品的藻類都是在特別的培養池中用乾淨的水來培養的,養出來的藻類重金屬含量極低,完全符合標準。經由不受污染的藻類所產出的DHA,還能取代魚油中的DHA,適合孕婦及嬰兒食用,美國有些嬰兒奶粉中所含的DHA就是從藻類來的。

闕鴻達從綠藻起家,曾經遭受打擊險些關門歇業,現在光是藍藻及綠藻錠的年營收就達到三億元,在台灣市場佔有率超過三成,客戶遍布全球五十三個國家,而且還在持續增加當中。

現在闕鴻達的短期目標是公開發行股票(IPO),把公司的規模做大,中長期目標則是要把藻類產業全球化,把藻類推廣到世界上的每一個角落,讓人人都能享受到藻類的好處,在大健康的時代讓所有人都能活得健康又長壽。

闕鴻達 遠東生物科技創辦人/董事長(微藻達人)

學歷:國立成功大學化學工程學系

簡歷:台北市生物產業協會常務理事、台灣健康食品學會理事、中華藻類學會常務理事

專利申請:台灣細胞璧膨爆法專利、美國及中國抗病毒物質專利、台灣及中國3D微藻培養系統專利、癌症光動力治療等共20多項

著作:《千金難買藻知道:神奇的微藻》

【詳細內容請參閱最新一期《理財周刊》844期。尊重智慧財產權,如需轉載請註明出處來源;歡迎訂閱理財周刊電子雜誌。用對好工具,賺錢很容易《專業財經DVD函授教學

 

【億級大師】蕭明道技術分析公益班2(封刀最終場)
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◎封面故事>乾坤大挪移
◎洪寶山發行人語>新常態的機會
◎曾志翔投資大師>投資人一碰就捲入冷血的金融結構中
◎理財我最大>大健康時代來臨 闕鴻達矢志推廣藻類保健食品
◎莊孟翰房地產會客室>對房地產新稅制四大改革建議
◎馬凱財金觀察>引頸期盼膽大心細領袖
◎特別企畫>預防醫學 力奪生技產業主導地位
◎會計師談理財>透視企業家節稅移民 看政策中立必要
◎陳學進股市大財寶>九月營收今年新高 永裕營運升溫
◎楊天迪量價領航>陸擴大10G GPON採購 聯鈞成長動能強勁

56 thoughts on “【理財周刊844期封面故事】乾坤大挪移

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