【先探投資週刊1907期】美大選後6招拆解台股

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2016/11/04 | 第303期 | 訂閱/退訂 | 看歷史報份 | 每週五出刊 | 先探網站
   
 

封面故事 美大選後6招拆解台股
 
老謝專欄 台股背後潛藏的大危險!
 
活動看板 活動快訊
 

封面故事

美大選後6招拆解台股
【文/方亞申】

美國聯邦調查局日前重啟希拉蕊電郵調查,已對希拉蕊選情造成重大衝擊!根據最新民調指出,共和黨候選人川普最新民調逆轉勝,顯示美國總統大選真的可能翻盤,令全球市場陷入恐慌,VIX(恐慌指數)飆高,台灣、歐、美各地股市連環下跌。投資銀行巴克萊甚至警告,萬一川普當選,標普五百指數可能崩跌十至十三%,比二○○八年九月雷曼兄弟宣告倒閉當天更加慘烈。

國際貨幣基金(IMF)前任首席經濟學家也同聲發出警告,這種驚嚇「將造成股市崩盤,全球陷入經濟衰退。」看來不到真正翻牌時刻難以揭曉。市場也因而採取保守觀望態度,但是投資的動作是持續下,就算是短線減碼,但中長線主要是趨勢力量所驅動。

超越選舉 美國景氣趨勢向上

美國景氣的確是好,最近公布第三季的景氣成長率,年增率達二.九%,比上半年疲弱的表現顯著反彈,且為兩年來最大成長率,受惠於出口暢旺和企業庫存增加。美國景氣好轉趨勢相當明顯;十月三十一日公布,九月個人支出較八月增加○.五%,不僅扭轉八月的○.一%跌幅,而且超越華爾街預期的○.四%增幅,主要原因是消費者對高單價耐久財支出擴大。至於個人所得,九月月增○.三%,與八月的○.二%增幅相比仍有改善,主因是就業市場穩定成長。美國國內生產毛額(GDP)有三分之二來自消費支出,但先前幾個月各項數據顯示美國人消費趨向保守,一度令外界擔心美國經濟失去成長動能,所幸個人支出數據令外界鬆了一口氣。

儘管如此,美國就業市場維持穩定成長仍對消費支出形成一大助力。個人儲蓄率也從五.八%降至五.七%,顯示消費需求擴大。出口、就業、企業庫存、消費力等都朝向正向,這股需求在年底前將持續推動美國經濟成長。

而九月新屋銷售經季節調整後為五九.三萬戶,接近九年來高點,房市略有降溫,但未反轉,景氣溫和成長的趨勢沒有太大改變。所以以美國經濟數據來看,都算是亮眼,選後除非當選人採取激烈手段,否則經濟揚升以及升息都是可以看得到的。

在經濟走升軌道中,當然也怕黑天鵝,一旦川普當選,經濟研究智庫牛津經濟估計,美國經濟將損失一兆美元,美國GDP將去掉五%,並且牽動全球經濟跟著衰退。市場初期震撼當然是有的,如同當初英國成功脫歐,也是市場始料未及,全球金融市場就下修,但是要使經濟成長的企圖心各國皆然,國際股市馬上就反彈收復失土,另一個因素就是低利率或負利率下,市場還是錢多。

川普當選,當然首當其衝的就是金融業,華爾街幾乎都是挺希拉蕊,尤其股神巴菲特更是槓上川普,所以金融股是箭靶所在。而川普反對北美自由貿易市場,主張在美墨邊境築起高牆,將墨西哥非法移民遣返,當然更批判歐巴馬一手推動的TPP。而希拉蕊則對生技製藥業較持反對態度。

大選前後參考六大面向

所以若以美國總統大選前後擬定投資策略,可歸納為;

一、選擇景氣正向的行業:汽車、運動及房地產修繕的台灣相關個股,選後若出現急拉回還是可以注意。其中汽車部分,十月份美國汽車銷售年化只有一七九○萬輛,較預期低,不過先不管新車銷售,汽車保險市場需求在經濟刺激下,仍將進入往常的旺季,就AM族群,包括東陽、堤維西、耿鼎、倉佑等,一般業績高峰都是從十月開始至隔年三月,其中本刊從年初以來推薦的東陽是指標,除了美國外,也受惠中國購置稅減半,該公司在中國布局超過十五個廠以上,與前五大車廠幾乎都有搭配。另一有利是該公司取得中國前三大的平安保險AM認證,是台灣第一家,如同美國取的CAPA認證一樣,等於是銷售保證,這點不受購置稅減半結束的利空影響,明年法人預估EPS將以五元起跳,可等待拉回介入時間。

另一部分是電動車方面,台灣包括和大及貿聯KY都是特斯拉第一線供應鏈,特斯拉汽車價格走向平價,第三季銷售業績超過預期,未來擴廠將持續,這些站在巨人肩膀上的公司,長多不變,待PE修正至二○倍以下還是可以注意。

此外,在美國房地產景氣下,輸美的修繕相關股如橋椿、鑽全、巨庭、錩泰、億豐等業績可持穩在高檔,短線PE不算低,若有修正將是一次機會。

去年最熱門的運動休閒,今年耐吉及UA業績表現不如預期,但愛迪達業績就大成長。由於全球運動風氣只會更熱,連中國都擬定相關提振策略,對於鞋材股利勤、百和、東隆興等還是機會。至於傳聞耐吉、愛迪達有意將製鞋改為機械或班師回德國、美國生產,寶成及豐泰未來業績所受影響,列入觀察名單。大致上還是以鞋材相關為主,股價幾乎已回檔一年,基期壓低後可追蹤。

二、透過ETF來參與金融商品:從美國的道瓊、S&P、Nasdaq到石油、黃金等,都有正反(多空)ETF及風險係數更高的二倍ETF,若手上有持股,擔心股價或指數下跌,可以買反向ETF來避險。而最近國際油價震盪幅度加大,ETF也適合操作。另外,有一說,若川普當選,全球金融動盪不可避免,有利黃金價格上漲,台灣也有相關商品。

三、外資控盤對象:台股低量,但外資今年上半年買超台股一一○億美元,居新興市場之首。然而台股陷入低量潮,外資要出也不方便,尤其是控盤的台灣五○,只要外資一殺,低檔可能接手弱。或也可以說,若國際股市急拉回,外資被迫減碼,相對未來反手再買進機率也很高,台積電尤其是指標中的指標,以該公司在產業地位以及客戶,都是站在科技浪潮的最前端,如Nvidia、蘋果等,除非沒行情,若有行情一定領先上漲,大立光亦同,後有詳盡分析。【本文未完,本文詳情及圖表請見《先探投資週刊》1907期;訂閱先探投資週刊電子版

 

老謝專欄

台股背後潛藏的大危險!
【文/謝金河】

長期以來我們擔心的問題:台股成交量!現在問題終於浮現了。十一月一日這一天,集中市場成交四八八.七億元,TPEX成交一三七億,兩市加起來六二五億,這是新台幣,這個成交量比港股恆生指數的六五六.二四億還少,別忘了香港是用港幣計價的,這一差就四倍多。

假如再拿中國深滬股市來比,那就差得更遠,十一月一日這一天,深圳股市成交二八八○億人民幣,上海成交一九五八億人民幣,兩市合計四八三八億人民幣,換成台幣是二.三兆,大約是台股一個半月的成交量。

美股哪有量縮?

很多官員都說,股市量縮是世界潮流,因為經濟不景氣、電子交易上路等問題,全球股市交易量普遍都下滑,這是錯覺。我用美股為例,十一月一日這一天,美國幾檔重量級個股成交量有多大?一是Amazon當天成交五一九.八四萬股,約四一億美元,如果換成台幣,超過一千二百億,那麼一檔Amazon幾乎等於台股兩天的成交量,美國股市哪有量縮?

再看當天Apple成交二三七○萬股,約八億美元,Google成交二一○.九萬股,約十七億美元,FB成交一四六四.二萬股,約十九.一八億美元,而銀行股的美國銀行成交六六○○.八萬股,大約十.九億美元,我單列出這幾檔大家熟悉的個股,換算成台幣都是百億以上。

這次到矽谷參訪,我強烈感受到矽谷創新力量的蓬勃,不論從育成中心,到加速器,或是沒有上市的獨角獸企業,甚至是已上市的Google、FB到Tesla,矽谷從業人員不眠不休要尋找創業成功之路,而最大動能是股票!

投入創新的員工或創業者,他們最期待的是從選擇權分配到股票,每天都「一暝大一吋」,像進到Google的員工,有的雖然配一股兩股,但是八○美元的Google跟八○○美元的Google,員工的感受完全不一樣;也就是說,在美國激勵創新的力量在股市,股市有活力,PE夠高,創業人才源源不絕而來,只有市值夠大、PE夠高的企業,在尋找一流人才相對具競爭力。

像現在Amazon的EPS只有四.三六美元,但股價一直在八○○美元以上,PE已拉高到一七五倍,FB的本益比低一些,也有六一倍。Google本益比稍低,但也有二八.八倍。線上串流的Netflix本益比高達三二八.六九倍。這次被Qualcomm併購的NXP(恩智浦),PE也有三四.一七倍。最近漲幅驚人的Nvidia,股價一度漲到七一.八美元,市值超過三八○億美元,目前PE也高達四五.二七倍。很多獨角獸企業像Uber還虧損累累,據說估值已到六六○億美元,這次我們參訪Airbnb估值也超過三五○億美元,投入這個行業的員工分到股票,大家知道如何共同創造公司價值,勢必全力以赴,就是這股精神讓矽谷創新能量源源不絕。

假如股市被打死了,創新的能量也會跟著減弱,台股正是這個最具負能量的教材,台股出現的四八八億台幣成交量,絕對是一個大警訊,因為台股成交量縮得太不像話,恐怕撐不起九○○○點以上的點數,也撐不住二七兆左右的市值,這當中一旦國際金融市場出現巨大變化,例如下周若川普意外當選,全球股市大跌,台股可能因為外資大殺持股而崩潰,這其中如果台積電股價回跌二○元,台股指數恐怕往下修正一○○○點。

內資早已潰不成軍

另一個是本土投資人力量式微,目前大盤成交量約五、六○○億上下,其中外資經常占三○○億左右,而最近很熱門的ETF大約拿走一○○∼一五○億,剩下的一、二百億才是本國投資人,這個情況可以看出,今年以來摩台指仍漲十三%以上,但是TPEX指數從一二九.○五跌到一二三.○八,今年已下跌四.六二%。這意味了台股上九○○○點,完全是外資撐出來的假象,內資早已潰不成軍。

而這個現象是在二○一三年證所稅及健全財政補充方案通過,我已預言台股將逐漸失去活力。台股成交量萎縮除了頂不住龐大市值外,另一個現象是本益比壓低,多數個股PE降到十倍以下,大型有競爭力的公司,像台積電可享十五倍本益比,本益比長期走低,連資本市場也失去競爭力,在本益比愈來愈低的情況下,另一個後座力是企業開始尋找海外上市,這是進一步掏空台灣的開始,最具代表性的是聯發科轉投資的匯頂科技。

十月匯頂在上海交易所掛牌,如今連漲十四支停板,從不到二○元人民幣漲到九六.五一人民幣,市值拉高到四二九.四六億人民幣,約二○四八億台幣,如果是在台灣的股市,匯頂已是排行僅次於聯發科的第二大IC設計公司,目前PE是四三.五八倍。台灣第二大的IC設計公司原本是聯詠,今年EPS大約十.五元,目前PE正好是十一倍,假如聯詠轉戰上海股市,PE變成四四倍,那麼股價可達四四○元,PE不同對人才吸納、公司併購完全會出現不同效應。

匯頂這次登高一呼,恐怕是台灣IC設計產業全面竄逃或潰敗的開始,中國仍活絡的資本市場鼓勵新創或創新的企業,有了匯頂的示範,未來想回台上市的企業一定卻步,甚至下一步會有很多企業想辦法從台灣下市,然後出走到中國上市,這個案例從鼎新電腦下市轉到深圳創業板掛牌,搖身一變為鼎捷軟件已開始了,目前鼎捷軟件市值七○.五一億人民幣,PE高達五五九倍;原來是環隆電器改名的環旭電子,目前市值二五六.九八億人民幣,PE也達三四.二五倍,留在台灣的企業眼看本益比愈來愈低,落跑的企業會愈來愈多。

造成台股這個現象的因素很多,但是內外資不同稅是很重要的原因,過去三年來,我不斷大聲疾呼,呼籲政府要重視這個問題,但是不論是國民黨或民進黨政府都無力解決這個問題,我的好朋友投資專家劉俊杰最近十分感慨地說了一段話:台灣資本市場長期以來努力的成果,正被外資「整碗端走」。政府對外資優惠過了頭,對內資卻壓乾到極致,他認為假如不降內資的稅,那麼就把外資的分離課稅稅率調高到三○%,他憂心地表示,政府若持續漠視,令人心痛的是,台灣績優企業將全部淪為外資殖民地!這是十分沈痛的呼籲。【本文未完,本文詳情及圖表請見《先探投資週刊》1907期;訂閱先探投資週刊電子版

本期其它精彩當期文章延伸閱讀

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54 thoughts on “【先探投資週刊1907期】美大選後6招拆解台股

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  6. Actually film is the presentation of some oneís feelings; it provides the lesson to the viewers.

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  38. There are also so many video uploading sites, and these also give facility for distribution their video lessons, but I think YouTube is the finest.

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