價值選股大作戰 模糊不清時挑千里馬才安心

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2016/10/24 第169期  |  訂閱/退訂  |  看歷史報份  |  非凡商業周刊  |  臉書粉絲團

本期焦點 價值選股大作戰 模糊不清時挑千里馬才安心
特別報導 穿戴裝置百家爭鳴 新應用推升相關市場大躍進
非凡情報 訂閱《非凡商業周刊》

 
 

價值選股大作戰 模糊不清時挑千里馬才安心
【作者 /呂漢威】

台股在中秋節過後出現一波強彈,目前指數仍然是維持在高檔,就強弱的角度來說,台股並不算弱,惟獨美中不足的就是成交量遲遲未能放大,過去一段時日加權指數的每日成交量大多都在600∼700億元左右,這樣的成交量能夠讓台股維持長時間的高檔整理,確實是讓市場匪夷所思,到底哪來的力量,而錢到底都跑到哪裡去了?

市場資金相當集中

有限的資金要能夠使指數維持在相對高檔,就表示資金點火的力道會比較集中在幾檔重要的指標股身上,並不會出現百花齊放的狀況,這點從台股上市櫃公司填權息的概況就可以看得出來。

台股今年總除權息的家數有1100多家,以10月18日的收盤價來判斷,大約有45%的公司完全填權息或者是正在填權息,換句話說,還有將近一半以上的公司,尚未展開填權息之路,可見得市場的資金都是流向完全填權息或是正在填權息的公司。

而若再就完全填權息的比率來看,傳產類股的占比為11%、電子類股占比為14%、金融類股占比為1%,由此可見Q4以來,市場的資金比較集中流向到傳產與電子等族群,這也呼應了最近幾檔走勢特別強勁的塑化與電子類股,如華夏(1305)、岳豐(6220)等。

聚焦法人青睞標的

觀察到華夏與岳豐這段時間以來股價之所以能夠這麼強勁,主要是因為市場的資金集中流入所致,然而這些資金主要多是來自法人。你可以清楚地發現,今年以來只要是法人買超較集中的股票,其走勢也都相當的強勁。

例如若從大立光(3008)的股價來觀察,今年就呈現出翻倍的情況,所以說今年的台股市場並不缺大漲的股票,缺少的是全面性的資金,因為先前的政府實施證所稅之後市場資金就轉往房地產,沒想到前朝政府再繼續用重稅打壓房地產,使得資金再度轉往更為保守的保險、債券等市場。

試想現在投資人手中的資金不是套牢在房地產,就是轉向更保守的金融商品去投資,所以一般投資人能投入到股市的資金也就愈來愈少,不過這也會更加凸顯了法人在台灣股票市場的力量,因為只有法人才有能力挹注源源不絕的資金到股票市場,而且法人在進場之前都一定會先研究與篩選過,所以法人買超的標的始終是選股條件中的一個很重要元素。

在台股量能未出的前提之下,法人籌碼仍然相當的重要,但如果法人的籌碼由買轉賣,股價修正的速度也會很快,也因此要時時觀察法人買超股的狀況,一旦出現由買轉賣的情況,我們也要適時地避開才是。

有買盤才會有動力

1檔股票的基本面再好,也是要有買盤,股價才會有往上的動能,如果1檔配股配息比率很高的公司,其股東在參加除權息之後,不願意把拿到的股息再投入買進公司的股票,或是股東將配得的股票於市場上賣出,這樣公司的股價是不會有亮眼的表現,所以能夠順利填權息的公司,也就表示股東或是新進的投資者看好該公司的價值。

【完整內容請見《非凡商業周刊》2016/10/21 No.1011】

 
 

穿戴裝置百家爭鳴 新應用推升相關市場大躍進
【作者 /楊璧如】

穿戴式裝置是目前科技業最熱門的話題之一,世足賽引發全球穿戴裝置與運動的結合,而先前在美國推行各型保健計畫之下,普及率有持續提升的情況,產品從運動健身、醫療監測概念的手環、服飾、扣帶,發展到功能齊備的智慧手表,甚至近年興起的VR(虛擬實境)等頭戴式裝置等(圖1),應用面持續擴大,科技廠商不僅攜手時尚業者進軍穿戴市場,藉以提高消費者的青睞,進而拉高產品附加價值,同時也針對消費者的需求,多方推出通訊、行動支付、出入辨識、安全等各項新功能,部分產品更朝向利基性的小眾市場發展,例如防止兒童迷路、視障者專用的點字型智慧手表,甚至是寵物健康管理項圈等,也讓穿戴式裝置的市場與產值逐年增加,包括蘋果、Google、三星、微軟、小米、華為等各品牌大廠也積極介入搶食市場大餅。

市場競爭頗為激烈

目前穿戴式裝置仍以智慧手環與智慧手表為大宗,2015年兩者市場規模相當,至於頭戴式裝置原屬高價軍事用途,2016年虛擬實境頭戴式裝置隨著電玩、娛樂、個人化互動、電影、體育賽事等消費性應用,以及企業任務如設備維修、檢測和維護等而崛起。

根據研究機構Gartner預測,2016年全球穿戴式裝置銷售量可達2.746億台,年成長18.4%。在金額方面,約可產生287億美元營收,其中,高達115億美元來自於智慧手表。而根據IDC報告指出,Q2受到基本款穿戴式裝置的年成長率達到48.8%的提振之下,全球穿戴式裝置出貨量達到2250萬支,較去年同期成長26.1%。至於MIC則預估到2018年智慧穿戴裝置市場銷售量將達1.6億台,較2016年增加約6000萬台,其中智慧手表與手環產品銷量將占約5000萬台。而拓墣更預估穿戴式裝置將逐年成長,2018年將上看2.13億台。

目前穿戴式裝置市場競爭頗為激烈,以廠商角度來看,前4大穿戴裝置廠商依然是眾所熟知的,其中,功能介面簡單,外形較具時尚感的Fitbit出貨量達570萬支,市占率25.4%,依舊蟬聯市場冠軍,不過該公司產品線日前才正式進軍台灣,因此國內消費者對該品牌相對陌生。至於第2名是專攻低價基本款的小米(Xiaomi),出貨量達310萬支,年增2.5%,市占率14.0%。

至於去年大陣仗推出智慧手表Apple Watch的Apple,結果似乎是雷聲大雨點小,隨著蘋果光漸趨黯淡,Apple智慧手表Q2僅出貨160多萬支,較去年大幅衰退56.7%,市占率退到僅7%,更與第4名的Garmin差距明顯拉近。此外,名列第五的樂心(Lifesense)以低價進軍健康手環市場,由於健康手環Mambo整合中國最大通訊軟體微信,並讓用戶分享資訊,因而激發樂心的穿戴式裝置出貨量增至100萬支,市占率達4.6%。

【完整內容請見《非凡商業周刊》2016/10/21 No.1011】

 
 

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