題材股輪動戰 以靜制動 捕捉下波熱點!

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本期焦點 題材股輪動戰 以靜制動 捕捉下波熱點!
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題材股輪動戰 以靜制動 捕捉下波熱點!
【作者 /傅梓翎】

為什麼顧能看好明年PC、NB產業?2017年會有哪些商機?相關受惠廠商有哪些?又蘋果10月發表的新款NB將會帶來哪些契機?真的會有換機潮可以期待?相關受惠股哪些是投資人可以留意的?來做個PC、NB大掃瞄!

老兵不死只是轉型

雖然顧能在9月底時,曾一度丟出PC大廠要在2020年之前做出「退出或重整」的重話,但是近年的PC大廠也不僅只是死守PC市場而已,也都開始順利轉型。

沒錯!老兵不死、只是轉型,他們也都各自的闖出了一片天,像最近很火熱的「電競PC、強固電腦」,開創了PC族群的新藍海天空,令人不得不重新注意,這個過去曾經撼動台股的NB、PC族群。

首先看看研究機構怎麼看這個產業?顧能在10月中旬指出今年第3季全球PC出貨量達6894萬台,仍較去年下滑5.7%,呈現連續8季的下滑,是歷史最長衰退紀錄,主要是換機動機不強、週期拉長;而在另一家研調機講IDC的出貨量數字則更低,不到6800萬台,較去年同期衰退3.9%。

顧能預估2016年PC將衰退有8%之多,再參考另一家研究機構Digitimes的報告,也指出今年全球的NB出貨量將會跌破1.5億台,衰退7.2%,與PC的情況差不多,而TrendForce則認為NB出貨量會有1.56億台,衰退較少,僅約5.1%,看來今年的市場仍然衰退,因為大家都改用手機與平板,真的不需要一直黏著PC。

雖然如此,但有一個現象值得留意,就是Google的NB、Chromebook居然逆勢大成長30∼40%,2016年出貨量上看1000萬台,主要是Chromebook不用付作業系統的授權金,成功打入較低價的NB市場,成為第3季返校需求的大贏家,主要的品牌廠商有戴爾、惠普、聯想、宏

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